CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction
MLS · · Saputo Stadium, Montreal
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives CF Montreal a 20% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vancouver Whitecaps 57%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: CF Montreal 1.19, Vancouver Whitecaps 2.06.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
CF Montreal: position 15 with 26 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-8-20), 37 goals scored and 69 conceded. Recent form: L D L L D.
Vancouver Whitecaps: position 1 with 64 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 19-7-8), 74 goals scored and 34 conceded. Recent form: W W W L W.
On average CF Montreal take 0.79 points per game, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.85.
Absences and team news
CF Montreal report no significant absences.
Vancouver Whitecaps report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 21% for CF Montreal, 23% for the draw and 56% for Vancouver Whitecaps. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 20%, 23% and 57%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: CF Montreal 1.19, Vancouver Whitecaps 2.06, 3.25 in total. Over 2.5 at 63%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.2 (over 9.5 at 55%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Marcos De Oliveira (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Montreal: 4.7 °C, no rain, wind 20 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Vancouver Whitecaps win (57%, fair odds 1.77); double chance X2 rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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