Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC prediction
MLS · · Talen Energy Stadium, Philadelphia
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Philadelphia Union a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Toronto FC 11%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.56, Toronto FC 0.96.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Philadelphia Union: position 6 with 50 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-8-12), 66 goals scored and 52 conceded. Recent form: W L D L D.
Toronto FC: position 12 with 39 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-12-13), 52 goals scored and 67 conceded. Recent form: L L W L W.
On average Philadelphia Union take 1.42 points per game, Toronto FC 1.18.
Absences and team news
Philadelphia Union report no significant absences.
Toronto FC report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 71% for Philadelphia Union, 17% for the draw and 12% for Toronto FC. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 71%, 18% and 11%.
Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.56, Toronto FC 0.96, 3.52 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.3 (over 9.5 at 57%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Tim Ford (over 3.5 at 49%).
Kick-off forecast in Chester: 7.6 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Philadelphia Union win (71%, fair odds 1.40); double chance 1X rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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