New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC prediction
MLS · · Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives New York Red Bulls a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atlanta United FC 26%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 2.27, Atlanta United FC 1.61.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
New York Red Bulls: position 10 with 42 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 12-6-16), 48 goals scored and 62 conceded. Recent form: W L L W L.
Atlanta United FC: position 13 with 33 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-6-19), 43 goals scored and 60 conceded. Recent form: L W L L L.
On average New York Red Bulls take 1.18 points per game, Atlanta United FC 1.00.
Absences and team news
New York Red Bulls report no significant absences.
Atlanta United FC report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 52% for New York Red Bulls, 22% for the draw and 26% for Atlanta United FC. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 52%, 22% and 26%.
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 2.27, Atlanta United FC 1.61, 3.88 in total. Over 2.5 at 74%, both teams to score at 72%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Pierre Luce Lauziere (over 3.5 at 53%).
Kick-off forecast in Harrison: 12.2 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a New York Red Bulls win (52%, fair odds 1.92); double chance 1X rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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