Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew prediction
MLS · · SeatGeek Stadium, Bridgeview
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Chicago Fire a 53% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Columbus Crew 24%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Chicago Fire 2.12, Columbus Crew 1.40.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Chicago Fire: position 4 with 55 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 16-7-11), 64 goals scored and 54 conceded. Recent form: L W D W L.
Columbus Crew: position 7 with 47 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-5-15), 59 goals scored and 52 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average Chicago Fire take 1.67 points per game, Columbus Crew 1.33.
Absences and team news
Chicago Fire report no significant absences.
Columbus Crew report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 53% for Chicago Fire, 22% for the draw and 25% for Columbus Crew. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 53%, 23% and 24%.
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 2.12, Columbus Crew 1.40, 3.52 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 67%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 4, with referee Rosendo Mendoza (over 3.5 at 56%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Chicago Fire win (53%, fair odds 1.88); double chance 1X rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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