Bodo/Glimt vs Lille prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Bodo/Glimt a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lille 17%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.25, Lille 1.15.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Bodo/Glimt: position 25 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: D L W L.
Lille: position 35 with 1 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-3), 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: D L L L.
On average Bodo/Glimt take 1.00 points per game, Lille 0.00.
Absences and team news
Bodo/Glimt are without H. Evjen, J. Lund, A. Mikkelsen, I. Sjong.
Lille are without N. Bentaleb, T. Santos, E. Mbappe, A. Ueda.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 59% for Bodo/Glimt, 22% for the draw and 19% for Lille. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 61%, 21% and 17%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.25, Lille 1.15, 3.40 in total. Over 2.5 at 66%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bodo/Glimt win (61%, fair odds 1.63); double chance 1X rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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