Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction
Champions League ·
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atletico Madrid a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bayern München 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.52, Bayern München 1.73.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atletico Madrid: position 23 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. Recent form: L D W L.
Bayern München: position 13 with 8 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-0), 12 goals scored and 5 conceded. Recent form: W D D W.
On average Atletico Madrid take 1.33 points per game, Bayern München 1.67.
Absences and team news
Atletico Madrid are without M. Hjulmand, J. Cardoso, C. Romero, Koke.
Bayern München are without L. Diaz, I. Saibari, M. Olise, M. Neuer.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 33% for Atletico Madrid, 25% for the draw and 43% for Bayern München. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 33%, 25% and 42%.
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.52, Bayern München 1.73, 3.25 in total. Over 2.5 at 63%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bayern München win (42%, fair odds 2.38); double chance X2 rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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