Manchester United vs AS Roma prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Manchester United a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AS Roma 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Manchester United 1.76, AS Roma 1.50.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Manchester United: position 17 with 6 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-2), 8 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: W L L W.
AS Roma: position 20 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L W L D.
On average Manchester United take 1.00 points per game, AS Roma 1.33.
Absences and team news
Manchester United are without M. Rashford, L. Shaw, P. Dorgu, B. Sesko.
AS Roma are without P. Dybala, M. Svilar, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini.
Team news, Manchester United: Carrick is under pressure: he got a vote of confidence after the Bournemouth defeat, and United have not won in nine matches.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 44% for Manchester United, 23% for the draw and 33% for AS Roma. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 43%, 25% and 32%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Manchester United 1.76, AS Roma 1.50, 3.26 in total. Over 2.5 at 63%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Manchester United win (43%, fair odds 2.33); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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