Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Villarreal a 20% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Paris Saint Germain 60%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: Villarreal 1.30, Paris Saint Germain 2.32.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Villarreal: position 28 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 8 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: L L W L.
Paris Saint Germain: position 1 with 12 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-0-0), 20 goals scored and 5 conceded. Recent form: W W W W.
On average Villarreal take 1.00 points per game, Paris Saint Germain 3.00.
Absences and team news
Villarreal are without J. Foyth, G. Moreno, I. Akhomach, N. Saliba.
Paris Saint Germain are without Marquinhos, K. Kvaratskhelia, O. Dembele, N. Mendes.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 21% for Villarreal, 22% for the draw and 58% for Paris Saint Germain. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 20%, 21% and 60%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Villarreal 1.30, Paris Saint Germain 2.32, 3.62 in total. Over 2.5 at 70%, both teams to score at 66%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Paris Saint Germain win (60%, fair odds 1.68); double chance X2 rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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