Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sporting CP 45%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.24, Sporting CP 1.60.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Shakhtar Donetsk: position 21 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: L L W D.
Sporting CP: position 10 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 8 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: W L W W.
On average Shakhtar Donetsk take 1.33 points per game, Sporting CP 2.00.
Absences and team news
Shakhtar Donetsk are without Pedrinho, P. Obah, D. Tvardovskyi, V. Korniyenko.
Sporting CP are without Z. Debast, R. Zalazar, N. Santos, S. Alexandropoulos.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for Shakhtar Donetsk, 27% for the draw and 44% for Sporting CP. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 28%, 27% and 45%.
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.24, Sporting CP 1.60, 2.83 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sporting CP win (45%, fair odds 2.24); double chance X2 rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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