Barcelona vs Aston Villa prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Barcelona a 75% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Aston Villa 11%. The most likely result is 3-1. Expected goals: Barcelona 3.15, Aston Villa 1.22.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Barcelona: position 5 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 14 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W L W W.
Aston Villa: position 6 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 12 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L W W W.
On average Barcelona take 2.00 points per game, Aston Villa 3.00.
Absences and team news
Barcelona are without X. Espart, E. Garcia, D. Olmo, A. Christensen.
Aston Villa are without A. Wan-Bissaka, M. Ruggeri, B. Madjo, A. Onana.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 77% for Barcelona, 13% for the draw and 10% for Aston Villa. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 75%, 14% and 11%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Barcelona 3.15, Aston Villa 1.22, 4.36 in total. Over 2.5 at 81%, both teams to score at 68%; the most likely score is 3-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Barcelona win (75%, fair odds 1.34); double chance 1X rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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