AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives AEK Athens FC a 6% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Real Madrid 82%. The most likely result is 0-3. Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 0.83, Real Madrid 3.11.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
AEK Athens FC: position 29 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 5 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: L L L W.
Real Madrid: position 2 with 12 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-0-0), 13 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W W W W.
On average AEK Athens FC take 1.00 points per game, Real Madrid 3.00.
Absences and team news
AEK Athens FC report no significant absences.
Real Madrid report no significant absences.
Team news, Real Madrid: Rodrygo is unavailable with a knee injury and Raúl Asencio is ruled out with a leg problem.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for AEK Athens FC, 12% for the draw and 80% for Real Madrid. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 6%, 12% and 82%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 0.83, Real Madrid 3.11, 3.94 in total. Over 2.5 at 75%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 0-3. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Madrid win (82%, fair odds 1.23); double chance X2 rises to 94%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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