RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives RB Leipzig a 19% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Manchester City 62%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.38, Manchester City 2.55.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
RB Leipzig: position 30 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 5 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: L L W L.
Manchester City: position 7 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 12 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W W L W.
On average RB Leipzig take 1.00 points per game, Manchester City 2.00.
Absences and team news
RB Leipzig are without T. Gomis, C. Nkunku, M. Finkgrafe, M. Esteve.
Manchester City are without A. Semenyo, Rúben Dias, J. Gvardiol.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 19% for RB Leipzig, 19% for the draw and 62% for Manchester City. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 19%, 19% and 62%.
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.38, Manchester City 2.55, 3.93 in total. Over 2.5 at 75%, both teams to score at 70%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Manchester City win (62%, fair odds 1.61); double chance X2 rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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