FC Porto vs Napoli prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC Porto a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Napoli 24%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: FC Porto 1.64, Napoli 1.07.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC Porto: position 26 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W L L L.
Napoli: position 27 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: L W L L.
On average FC Porto take 0.00 points per game, Napoli 1.00.
Absences and team news
FC Porto are without William Gomes, Zaidu, O. Pietuszewski, Gabriel Mec.
Napoli are without G. Di Lorenzo, S. Lobotka, L. Spinazzola, M. Olivera.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 49% for FC Porto, 27% for the draw and 24% for Napoli. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 50%, 27% and 24%.
Expected goals: FC Porto 1.64, Napoli 1.07, 2.71 in total. Over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC Porto win (50%, fair odds 2.02); double chance 1X rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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