Lens vs Como prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Lens a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Como 50%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Lens 1.27, Como 1.86.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Lens: position 33 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 4 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: L L L W.
Como: position 4 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 19 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W W L W.
On average Lens take 1.00 points per game, Como 2.00.
Absences and team news
Lens are without I. Ganiou, A. Sima, O. Edouard, M. Nawrocki.
Como are without T. Chalobah, A. Diao, M. Baturina, J. Rodriguez.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 26% for Lens, 25% for the draw and 50% for Como. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 25%, 25% and 50%.
Expected goals: Lens 1.27, Como 1.86, 3.13 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Como win (50%, fair odds 1.99); double chance X2 rises to 75%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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