Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Fenerbahçe a 13% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Liverpool 69%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 1.10, Liverpool 2.59.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Fenerbahçe: position 19 with 5 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-1), 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: W D L D.
Liverpool: position 8 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: L W W W.
On average Fenerbahçe take 0.67 points per game, Liverpool 3.00.
Absences and team news
Fenerbahçe are without N. Ake, M. Asensio, J. Oosterwolde, K. Peprah.
Liverpool are without R. Gravenberch, J. Frimpong, F. Chiesa, W. Endo.
Team news, Fenerbahçe: Dirk Kuyt took over as interim coach after Ismail Kartal resigned; the team sits 31st in the Champions League with two points.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 15% for Fenerbahçe, 19% for the draw and 66% for Liverpool. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 13%, 18% and 69%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 1.10, Liverpool 2.59, 3.68 in total. Over 2.5 at 71%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Liverpool win (69%, fair odds 1.46); double chance X2 rises to 87%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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