Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Borussia Dortmund a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Betis 16%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.09, Real Betis 1.00.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Borussia Dortmund: position 12 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 7 goals scored and 5 conceded. Recent form: W W L W.
Real Betis: position 11 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L W W W.
On average Borussia Dortmund take 2.00 points per game, Real Betis 3.00.
Absences and team news
Borussia Dortmund are without Kouakou Joane Gadou, M. Beier, G. Konstantelias, E. Can.
Real Betis are without Fran García, Héctor Bellerín, Marc Roca, C. Hernandez.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 61% for Borussia Dortmund, 22% for the draw and 17% for Real Betis. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 61%, 22% and 16%.
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.09, Real Betis 1.00, 3.10 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Borussia Dortmund win (61%, fair odds 1.63); double chance 1X rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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