PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives PSV Eindhoven a 50% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Club Brugge KV 27%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.13, Club Brugge KV 1.55.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
PSV Eindhoven: position 24 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: L W L D.
Club Brugge KV: position 9 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 11 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W W W L.
On average PSV Eindhoven take 1.33 points per game, Club Brugge KV 2.00.
Absences and team news
PSV Eindhoven are without P. Wanner, R. Flamingo, A. Plea, J. Schouten.
Club Brugge KV are without Lee Han-Beom, J. Ordonez.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 51% for PSV Eindhoven, 22% for the draw and 27% for Club Brugge KV. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 50%, 23% and 27%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.13, Club Brugge KV 1.55, 3.68 in total. Over 2.5 at 71%, both teams to score at 70%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a PSV Eindhoven win (50%, fair odds 1.99); double chance 1X rises to 73%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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