Slavia Praha vs Arsenal prediction
Champions League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Slavia Praha a 6% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Arsenal 77%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Slavia Praha 0.50, Arsenal 2.29.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Slavia Praha: position 34 with 1 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-3), 5 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: L D L L.
Arsenal: position 3 with 10 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-0), 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: W D W W.
On average Slavia Praha take 0.33 points per game, Arsenal 2.33.
Absences and team news
Slavia Praha are without J. Markovic, T. Chory, L. Provod, S. Isife.
Arsenal are without M. Ødegaard, B. Saka, K. Havertz, R. Calafiori.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for Slavia Praha, 16% for the draw and 77% for Arsenal. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 6%, 17% and 77%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 0.50, Arsenal 2.29, 2.80 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 36%; the most likely score is 0-2.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Arsenal win (77%, fair odds 1.29); double chance X2 rises to 94%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram