Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Crystal Palace a 51% chance of winning, the draw 24% and 1899 Hoffenheim 24%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.90, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.27.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Crystal Palace: position 21 with 5 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-1), 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: D D L W.
1899 Hoffenheim: position 23 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: D W L L.
On average Crystal Palace take 1.33 points per game, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.00.
Absences and team news
Crystal Palace are without J. Larsen, Q. Timber, T. Tomiyasu, J. Lerma.
1899 Hoffenheim are without B. Conte, V. Coufal, A. Hajdari, R. Hranac.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 50% for Crystal Palace, 25% for the draw and 25% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 51%, 24% and 24%.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.90, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.27, 3.17 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Crystal Palace win (51%, fair odds 1.95); double chance 1X rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram