Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Celta Vigo a 38% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Union St. Gilloise 33%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.36, Union St. Gilloise 1.25.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Celta Vigo: position 27 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L W L L.
Union St. Gilloise: position 4 with 10 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-0), 10 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: W W D W.
On average Celta Vigo take 1.00 points per game, Union St. Gilloise 2.33.
Absences and team news
Celta Vigo are without M. Roman, I. Moriba, Ferran Jutglà, A. Nunez.
Union St. Gilloise are without M. Biondic, K. Mac Allister, O. Kricfalusi, R. Schoofs.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 40% for Celta Vigo, 29% for the draw and 31% for Union St. Gilloise. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 38%, 29% and 33%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.36, Union St. Gilloise 1.25, 2.61 in total. Over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Celta Vigo win (38%, fair odds 2.62); double chance 1X rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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