Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sturm Graz a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Celje 17%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sturm Graz 2.08, Celje 1.03.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sturm Graz: position 24 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L W L D.
Celje: position 25 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 5 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: W D L L.
On average Sturm Graz take 1.33 points per game, Celje 0.33.
Absences and team news
Sturm Graz are without D. Khudyakov, Jacob Peter Hödl, S. Jatta, A. Vallci.
Celje are without M. Kvesić, Y. Dukuly, I. Calusic, Z. L. Sega.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 62% for Sturm Graz, 22% for the draw and 17% for Celje. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 61%, 22% and 17%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 2.08, Celje 1.03, 3.11 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sturm Graz win (61%, fair odds 1.65); double chance 1X rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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