Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sunderland a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Dinamo Zagreb 15%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Sunderland 2.05, Dinamo Zagreb 0.91.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sunderland: position 11 with 7 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-1), 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: L D W W.
Dinamo Zagreb: position 9 with 7 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-1), 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: W L W D.
On average Sunderland take 2.33 points per game, Dinamo Zagreb 1.33.
Absences and team news
Sunderland are without N. Sadiki, E. Le Fée, Reinildo, T. Hume.
Dinamo Zagreb are without S. McKenna, Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf, A. Hoxha, M. Zajc.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 63% for Sunderland, 21% for the draw and 16% for Dinamo Zagreb. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 63%, 22% and 15%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Sunderland 2.05, Dinamo Zagreb 0.91, 2.96 in total. Over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 2-0.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sunderland win (63%, fair odds 1.59); double chance 1X rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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