AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives AC Milan a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ferencvarosi TC 14%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: AC Milan 2.22, Ferencvarosi TC 0.93.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
AC Milan: position 28 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: L L W L.
Ferencvarosi TC: position 3 with 12 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-0-0), 11 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: W W W W.
On average AC Milan take 1.00 points per game, Ferencvarosi TC 3.00.
Absences and team news
AC Milan are without M. Maignan, S. Chukwueze, R. Loftus-Cheek, F. Tomori.
Ferencvarosi TC are without E. Botka, F. Kovacevic, I. Pappoe, B. Nagy.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 69% for AC Milan, 18% for the draw and 13% for Ferencvarosi TC. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 66%, 21% and 14%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: AC Milan 2.22, Ferencvarosi TC 0.93, 3.15 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a AC Milan win (66%, fair odds 1.52); double chance 1X rises to 86%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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