Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Anderlecht a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Red Bull Salzburg 24%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.86, Red Bull Salzburg 1.24.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Anderlecht: position 15 with 6 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-2), 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: W W L L.
Red Bull Salzburg: position 26 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 3 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L D L W.
On average Anderlecht take 1.00 points per game, Red Bull Salzburg 1.33.
Absences and team news
Anderlecht are without I. Koutsoupias, M. Winkler, I. Camara, K. Sardella.
Red Bull Salzburg are without D. Schmid, S. Kitano, N. Veratschnig, D. Redzic.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 50% for Anderlecht, 24% for the draw and 26% for Red Bull Salzburg. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 51%, 25% and 24%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.86, Red Bull Salzburg 1.24, 3.09 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Anderlecht win (51%, fair odds 1.96); double chance 1X rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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