Lillestrom vs Plzen prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Lillestrom a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Plzen 45%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.39, Plzen 1.75.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Lillestrom: position 34 with 1 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-3), 2 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: L L D L.
Plzen: position 30 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W L L L.
On average Lillestrom take 0.33 points per game, Plzen 0.00.
Absences and team news
Lillestrom are without C. Jebara, E. B. Garnas.
Plzen are without M. Tvrdon, V. Jemelka.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 30% for Lillestrom, 25% for the draw and 45% for Plzen. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 30%, 25% and 45%.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.39, Plzen 1.75, 3.14 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Plzen win (45%, fair odds 2.22); double chance X2 rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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