Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Benfica a 78% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Lech Poznan 8%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Benfica 3.02, Lech Poznan 0.94.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Benfica: position 1 with 12 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-0-0), 13 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: W W W W.
Lech Poznan: position 35 with 1 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-3), 2 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: L D L L.
On average Benfica take 3.00 points per game, Lech Poznan 0.33.
Absences and team news
Benfica are without G. Prestianni, S. Dahl, V. Pavlidis, Samuel Soares.
Lech Poznan are without W. Monka, M. Ishak, L. Palma, A. Sayyadmanesh.
Team news, Benfica: Benfica confirms that centre-back Lenglet is out injured ahead of the Lech Poznan match.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 78% for Benfica, 13% for the draw and 9% for Lech Poznan. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 78%, 14% and 8%.
Expected goals: Benfica 3.02, Lech Poznan 0.94, 3.96 in total. Over 2.5 at 76%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Benfica win (78%, fair odds 1.28); double chance 1X rises to 92%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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