Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sparta Praha a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bournemouth 62%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.03, Bournemouth 2.15.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sparta Praha: position 22 with 4 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-2), 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L L D W.
Bournemouth: position 2 with 12 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-0-0), 11 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: W W W W.
On average Sparta Praha take 1.33 points per game, Bournemouth 3.00.
Absences and team news
Sparta Praha are without J. Mercado, A. Karabec, M. Rynes, A. Sevinsky.
Bournemouth are without A. Scott, J. Sanchez, A. Toth, D. Jebbison.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 18% for Sparta Praha, 23% for the draw and 59% for Bournemouth. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 16%, 22% and 62%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.03, Bournemouth 2.15, 3.18 in total. Over 2.5 at 62%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bournemouth win (62%, fair odds 1.61); double chance X2 rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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