Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Levski Sofia a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Jagiellonia 23%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.53, Jagiellonia 0.98.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Levski Sofia: position 10 with 7 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-1), 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: W W D L.
Jagiellonia: position 29 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: L L W L.
On average Levski Sofia take 1.33 points per game, Jagiellonia 1.00.
Absences and team news
Levski Sofia are without O. Kamdem, A. Mitkov, R. Kirilov, P. Hristov.
Jagiellonia are without N. Wojtuszek, C. Polak, D. Drachal, Z. Zalewski.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Levski Sofia, 29% for the draw and 23% for Jagiellonia. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 49%, 28% and 23%.
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.53, Jagiellonia 0.98, 2.51 in total. Over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Levski Sofia win (49%, fair odds 2.04); double chance 1X rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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