Celtic vs Beşiktaş prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Celtic a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Beşiktaş 46%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Celtic 1.37, Beşiktaş 1.78.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Celtic: position 32 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: W L L L.
Beşiktaş: position 8 with 7 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-1), 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L D W W.
On average Celtic take 0.00 points per game, Beşiktaş 2.33.
Absences and team news
Celtic are without Colby Donovan, C. Durán, A. Trusty, V. Sinisalo.
Beşiktaş are without O. Kokcu, D. Vlahović, R. Yılmaz, F. Miretti.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 32% for Celtic, 25% for the draw and 43% for Beşiktaş. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 29%, 25% and 46%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Celtic 1.37, Beşiktaş 1.78, 3.16 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Beşiktaş win (46%, fair odds 2.17); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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