AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives AZ Alkmaar a 29% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Juventus 44%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.21, Juventus 1.55.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
AZ Alkmaar: position 14 with 6 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-2), 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: L W W L.
Juventus: position 5 with 10 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-0), 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: W D W W.
On average AZ Alkmaar take 2.00 points per game, Juventus 2.33.
Absences and team news
AZ Alkmaar are without E. Dijkstra, M. Chávez, Weslley Patati, K. Smit.
Juventus are without W. McKennie, Bremer, Z. Celik, Douglas Luiz.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 28% for AZ Alkmaar, 27% for the draw and 45% for Juventus. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 29%, 27% and 44%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.21, Juventus 1.55, 2.76 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Juventus win (44%, fair odds 2.28); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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