Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Hapoel Beer Sheva a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and OFI 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.58, OFI 1.32.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Hapoel Beer Sheva: position 33 with 1 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-3), 1 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L L L D.
OFI: position 16 with 6 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-2), 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: W L L W.
On average Hapoel Beer Sheva take 0.33 points per game, OFI 1.00.
Absences and team news
Hapoel Beer Sheva are without Pedro Amador, M. Vítor, J. East, Lucas Ventura.
OFI are without N. Christogeorgos, K. Kostoulas, A. Chatzigiovanis, A. Leya Iseka.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 44% for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 27% for the draw and 29% for OFI. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 43%, 27% and 31%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.58, OFI 1.32, 2.90 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Hapoel Beer Sheva win (43%, fair odds 2.35); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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