Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Real Sociedad a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lyon 20%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Real Sociedad 2.02, Lyon 1.13.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Real Sociedad: position 20 with 5 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-1), 9 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: D W D L.
Lyon: position 13 with 7 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-1), 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: D L W W.
On average Real Sociedad take 1.33 points per game, Lyon 2.00.
Absences and team news
Real Sociedad are without L. Beitia, A. Zakharyan, A. Odriozola.
Lyon are without L. Openda, T. Morton, P. Sulc, M. Ouedraogo.
Team news, Lyon: Lyon arrives without a stable coach: the ongoing change of technical leadership adds uncertainty to the preparation.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 57% for Real Sociedad, 23% for the draw and 21% for Lyon. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 57%, 23% and 20%.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 2.02, Lyon 1.13, 3.15 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Sociedad win (57%, fair odds 1.76); double chance 1X rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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