Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Bayer Leverkusen a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Marseille 11%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.66, Marseille 1.00.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Bayer Leverkusen: position 7 with 9 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-1), 8 goals scored and 1 conceded. Recent form: L W W W.
Marseille: position 31 with 3 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-3), 2 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W L L L.
On average Bayer Leverkusen take 3.00 points per game, Marseille 0.00.
Absences and team news
Bayer Leverkusen are without Afonso Moreira, E. Fernández, M. Diaby, M. Tillman.
Marseille are without A. Gomes, A. Harit, Emerson, D. Cornelius.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 70% for Bayer Leverkusen, 18% for the draw and 12% for Marseille. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 72%, 17% and 11%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.66, Marseille 1.00, 3.66 in total. Over 2.5 at 71%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bayer Leverkusen win (72%, fair odds 1.39); double chance 1X rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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