NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction
Europa League ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives NEC Nijmegen a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Omonia Nicosia 19%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.01, Omonia Nicosia 1.10.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
NEC Nijmegen: position 12 with 7 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-1), 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: W W D L.
Omonia Nicosia: position 18 with 6 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-2), 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: L L W W.
On average NEC Nijmegen take 1.33 points per game, Omonia Nicosia 2.00.
Absences and team news
NEC Nijmegen are without D. Tadic, A. Tahaui, D. Geiger, B. Nuytinck.
Omonia Nicosia are without L. Nego, F. Kitsos, C. Eiting.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 60% for NEC Nijmegen, 22% for the draw and 19% for Omonia Nicosia. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 58%, 23% and 19%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.01, Omonia Nicosia 1.10, 3.11 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a NEC Nijmegen win (58%, fair odds 1.74); double chance 1X rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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