FC Midtjylland vs Ajax prediction
Conference League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC Midtjylland a 30% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ajax 46%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.53, Ajax 1.91.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC Midtjylland: position 34 with 1 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-2), 2 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L L D.
Ajax: position 11 with 6 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-1), 9 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: W W L.
On average FC Midtjylland take 0.50 points per game, Ajax 1.50.
Absences and team news
FC Midtjylland report no significant absences.
Ajax report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 32% for FC Midtjylland, 23% for the draw and 45% for Ajax. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 30%, 24% and 46%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.53, Ajax 1.91, 3.43 in total. Over 2.5 at 67%, both teams to score at 68%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Ajax win (46%, fair odds 2.19); double chance X2 rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram