Twente vs Pafos prediction
Conference League ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Twente a 81% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Pafos 7%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Twente 3.03, Pafos 0.83.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Twente: position 3 with 9 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-0), 8 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: W W W.
Pafos: position 30 with 1 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-2), 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: L D L.
On average Twente take 3.00 points per game, Pafos 0.50.
Absences and team news
Twente are without L. Unnerstall.
Pafos report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 79% for Twente, 13% for the draw and 8% for Pafos. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 81%, 13% and 7%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Twente 3.03, Pafos 0.83, 3.86 in total. Over 2.5 at 74%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Twente win (81%, fair odds 1.24); double chance 1X rises to 93%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram