St. Truiden vs Brann prediction
Conference League ·
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives St. Truiden a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Brann 19%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: St. Truiden 2.32, Brann 1.25.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
St. Truiden: position 10 with 7 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-0), 4 goals scored and 1 conceded. Recent form: D W W.
Brann: position 6 with 7 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-0), 7 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: D W W.
On average St. Truiden take 3.00 points per game, Brann 3.00.
Absences and team news
St. Truiden are without R. Merlen, T. Hata, S. Baždar.
Brann are without J. Soltvedt, J. Sørensen, K. Eriksen, V. Dragsnes.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 60% for St. Truiden, 21% for the draw and 20% for Brann. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 61%, 21% and 19%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: St. Truiden 2.32, Brann 1.25, 3.57 in total. Over 2.5 at 69%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a St. Truiden win (61%, fair odds 1.65); double chance 1X rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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