Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Riga a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and FK Jablonec 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Riga 1.50, FK Jablonec 1.27.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Riga: position 19 with 3 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-3-0), 3 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: D D D.
FK Jablonec: position 23 with 2 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-1), 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: D D L.
On average Riga take 1.00 points per game, FK Jablonec 0.50.
Absences and team news
Riga are without A. Salazar, M. Badamosi, A. Černomordijs.
FK Jablonec are without N. Tekijaški, J. Hanuš, L. Jawo, F. Novák.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 41% for Riga, 27% for the draw and 32% for FK Jablonec. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 41%, 28% and 31%.
Expected goals: Riga 1.50, FK Jablonec 1.27, 2.77 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Riga win (41%, fair odds 2.42); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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