Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland prediction
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Monaco a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and FC Nordsjaelland 11%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Monaco 2.47, FC Nordsjaelland 0.91.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Monaco: position 4 with 9 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-0), 7 goals scored and 1 conceded. Recent form: W W W.
FC Nordsjaelland: position 25 with 2 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-1), 3 goals scored and 5 conceded. Recent form: L D D.
On average Monaco take 3.00 points per game, FC Nordsjaelland 1.00.
Absences and team news
Monaco are without Sadibou Sané, L. Camara, Vanderson, A. Golovin.
FC Nordsjaelland are without R. Norheim, Justin Janssen, P. Ankersen, Ibrahim Adel.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 70% for Monaco, 17% for the draw and 13% for FC Nordsjaelland. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 71%, 18% and 11%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Monaco 2.47, FC Nordsjaelland 0.91, 3.38 in total. Over 2.5 at 66%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Monaco win (71%, fair odds 1.41); double chance 1X rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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