Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia prediction
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Panathinaikos a 76% chance of winning, the draw 17% and CSKA Sofia 7%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.39, CSKA Sofia 0.64.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Panathinaikos: position 2 with 9 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-0), 9 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: W W W.
CSKA Sofia: position 28 with 1 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-1-2), 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L D L.
On average Panathinaikos take 3.00 points per game, CSKA Sofia 0.50.
Absences and team news
Panathinaikos are without E. Camara, A. Tetteh.
CSKA Sofia are without Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, M. Ebong, Bruno Jordão.
Team news, Panathinaikos: Kristiansen, Ounahi and Ingason are out injured: three important absences for Panathinaikos.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 74% for Panathinaikos, 16% for the draw and 10% for CSKA Sofia. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 76%, 17% and 7%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.39, CSKA Sofia 0.64, 3.04 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 44%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Panathinaikos win (76%, fair odds 1.32); double chance 1X rises to 93%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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