FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
Conference League ·
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC Lugano a 85% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Kauno Žalgiris 4%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.94, Kauno Žalgiris 0.52.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC Lugano: position 1 with 9 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-0), 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: W W W.
Kauno Žalgiris: position 36 with 0 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-0-3), 1 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: L L L.
On average FC Lugano take 3.00 points per game, Kauno Žalgiris 0.00.
Absences and team news
FC Lugano are without A. Grgić, M. Zanotti, H. Delcroix, R. Steffen.
Kauno Žalgiris are without T. Švedkauskas, F. Ourega, F. Baldassarra, Renan Oliveira.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 84% for FC Lugano, 11% for the draw and 5% for Kauno Žalgiris. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 85%, 11% and 4%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.94, Kauno Žalgiris 0.52, 3.46 in total. Over 2.5 at 67%, both teams to score at 39%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC Lugano win (85%, fair odds 1.17); double chance 1X rises to 96%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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