Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Universitatea Craiova a 74% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Egnatia Rrogozhinë 8%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.30, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.63.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Universitatea Craiova: position 8 with 7 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-0), 6 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: W W D.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë: position 26 with 2 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-1), 2 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: L D D.
On average Universitatea Craiova take 2.00 points per game, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.00.
Absences and team news
Universitatea Craiova report no significant absences.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë are without E. Sota, I. Gruda.
Team news, Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Egnatia's coach is worried about the physical condition of his players before the trip to Craiova.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 73% for Universitatea Craiova, 18% for the draw and 9% for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 74%, 18% and 8%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.30, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.63, 2.92 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 43%; the most likely score is 2-0.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Universitatea Craiova win (74%, fair odds 1.34); double chance 1X rises to 92%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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