Aarhus vs SC Braga prediction
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Aarhus a 20% chance of winning, the draw 25% and SC Braga 55%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Aarhus 1.00, SC Braga 1.79.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Aarhus: position 24 with 2 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-1), 1 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: D D L.
SC Braga: position 17 with 4 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-1), 2 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: D W L.
On average Aarhus take 0.50 points per game, SC Braga 1.50.
Absences and team news
Aarhus report no significant absences.
SC Braga report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 21% for Aarhus, 26% for the draw and 54% for SC Braga. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 20%, 25% and 55%.
Expected goals: Aarhus 1.00, SC Braga 1.79, 2.79 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a SC Braga win (55%, fair odds 1.82); double chance X2 rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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