Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Lincoln Red Imps FC a 6% chance of winning, the draw 16% and HNK Hajduk Split 78%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.55, HNK Hajduk Split 2.42.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Lincoln Red Imps FC: position 22 with 3 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-0-2), 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W L L.
HNK Hajduk Split: position 13 with 6 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-1), 3 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: L W W.
On average Lincoln Red Imps FC take 0.00 points per game, HNK Hajduk Split 3.00.
Absences and team news
Lincoln Red Imps FC report no significant absences.
HNK Hajduk Split report no significant absences.
Team news, HNK Hajduk Split: Roko Brajkovic is ruled out with a cruciate ligament injury, according to a pre-match preview.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for Lincoln Red Imps FC, 16% for the draw and 76% for HNK Hajduk Split. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 6%, 16% and 78%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.55, HNK Hajduk Split 2.42, 2.97 in total. Over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 39%; the most likely score is 0-2.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a HNK Hajduk Split win (78%, fair odds 1.28); double chance X2 rises to 94%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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