Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atalanta a 86% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Kairat Almaty 4%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Atalanta 3.28, Kairat Almaty 0.65.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atalanta: position 16 with 4 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-1), 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: D L W.
Kairat Almaty: position 27 with 2 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-1), 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: D L D.
On average Atalanta take 1.50 points per game, Kairat Almaty 0.50.
Absences and team news
Atalanta report no significant absences.
Kairat Almaty report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 86% for Atalanta, 10% for the draw and 4% for Kairat Almaty. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 86%, 10% and 4%.
Expected goals: Atalanta 3.28, Kairat Almaty 0.65, 3.93 in total. Over 2.5 at 75%, both teams to score at 46%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Atalanta win (86%, fair odds 1.16); double chance 1X rises to 96%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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