Barnsley vs Aldershot Town prediction
FA Cup · · Oakwell Ground, Barnsley
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Barnsley a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Aldershot Town 9%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Barnsley 2.86, Aldershot Town 0.95.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Barnsley report no significant absences.
Aldershot Town report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 76% for Barnsley, 14% for the draw and 10% for Aldershot Town. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 76%, 15% and 9%.
Expected goals: Barnsley 2.86, Aldershot Town 0.95, 3.81 in total. Over 2.5 at 73%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Barnsley: 10.3 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Barnsley win (76%, fair odds 1.31); double chance 1X rises to 91%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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