Gillingham vs Barrow prediction
FA Cup · · Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Gillingham a 44% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Barrow 28%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Gillingham 1.52, Barrow 1.16.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Gillingham report no significant absences.
Barrow report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 44% for Gillingham, 28% for the draw and 28% for Barrow. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 44%, 28% and 28%.
Expected goals: Gillingham 1.52, Barrow 1.16, 2.68 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Gillingham: 9.7 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Gillingham win (44%, fair odds 2.26); double chance 1X rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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