Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster prediction
FA Cup · · Aggborough, Kidderminster
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Kidderminster Harriers a 24% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Doncaster 50%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Kidderminster Harriers 1.17, Doncaster 1.76.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Kidderminster Harriers report no significant absences.
Doncaster are without Tommy Simkin, S. Grehan, G. Broadbent, I. Hutchinson.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 24% for Kidderminster Harriers, 24% for the draw and 52% for Doncaster. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 24%, 26% and 50%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Kidderminster Harriers 1.17, Doncaster 1.76, 2.93 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Kidderminster: 10 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Doncaster win (50%, fair odds 1.99); double chance X2 rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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