Barnet vs Tranmere prediction
FA Cup · · The Hive Stadium, London
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Barnet a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tranmere 20%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Barnet 1.75, Tranmere 0.99.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Barnet report no significant absences.
Tranmere report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 54% for Barnet, 25% for the draw and 21% for Tranmere. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 54%, 26% and 20%.
Expected goals: Barnet 1.75, Tranmere 0.99, 2.74 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in London: 10.7 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Barnet win (54%, fair odds 1.85); double chance 1X rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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