Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale prediction
FA Cup · · Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Fleetwood Town a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rochdale 20%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.85, Rochdale 1.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Fleetwood Town are without S. Rooney, M. Helm, C. Evans, W. Davies.
Rochdale are without B. Adeeko, E. Francis, Nils Ramming, S. Sherring.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 56% for Fleetwood Town, 24% for the draw and 20% for Rochdale. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 55%, 25% and 20%.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.85, Rochdale 1.04, 2.88 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Fleetwood Town win (55%, fair odds 1.81); double chance 1X rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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